Systemic Solutions for U.S. Agriculture

For the United States, the economic task here is entirely different from Turkey’s. This is not a problem of a lack of capital, technology, or entrepreneurship. The systemic weakness lies rather in the fact that an exceptionally productive economy is reproducing the basic conditions of life at ever greater cost while simultaneously accumulating government obligations faster than its tax base.

Defining the problem

As of 2026, the United States is not in a classic macroeconomic crisis. In April 2026, the IMF forecast real GDP growth of approximately 2.4% in 2026, while the CBO projected about 2.2% Q4/Q4; unemployment remains relatively low. IMF

But there are several structural imbalances:

• the federal deficit in 2026 is estimated by the CBO at approximately $1.9 trillion, or 5.8% of GDP;
• publicly held government debt is about 101% of GDP in 2026, with a projection of 120% in 2036;
• net interest costs rise from 3.3% of GDP in 2026 to 4.6% in 2036. Congressional Budget Office

At the same time, the country spends approximately 17.2% of GDP and $14,885 per person on health care — almost 2.5 times the OECD average. OECD

Therefore, the systemic task is:

not “how to make the economy produce more,” but how to turn very high productivity and technological advantage into cheaper reproduction of housing, health, education, infrastructure, and government.

1. The main fiscal mechanism: stop the automatic growth of debt

The most dangerous thing here is not the absolute size of the debt.

The problem:

structural deficit        ↓ new debt        ↓ interest payments        ↓ an even larger deficit        ↓ even more borrowing

On September 24, 2026, the CBO demonstrated the sensitivity of this structure: if rates were on average only 1 percentage point higher, debt would reach 222% of GDP by 2056 in its scenario, instead of 175% in the baseline forecast. Congressional Budget Office

A systemic architecture could use the following rule:

current permanent expenditures should be financed by current permanent revenues; debt should be used primarily for investment and emergencies.

This does not mean mechanically balancing the budget every year.

The rule can operate through the economic cycle:

recession → deficit permitted normal growth → primary balance overheating → primary surplus

The key indicator is the primary balance, that is, the budget excluding interest.

The CBO estimates the 2026 primary deficit at approximately 2.6% of GDP. Congressional Budget Office

2. Do not cut Social Security and Medicare separately — redesign the aging mechanism

The second structural problem is demographic.

The CBO directly links long-term expenditure growth primarily to:

• Social Security;
• Medicare;
• interest on the debt.

Under current law, the CBO projects the balance of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund to be exhausted in 2032. Congressional Budget Office

There are several different economic levers here, each with its own distributional effect:

retirement age + contributions + base on which contributions are paid + indexation formula + working-age immigration + productivity

The systemic point is not one specific parameter, but an automatic actuarial formula:

if the ratio of workers to retirees changes, the system gradually adjusts its parameters instead of accumulating a hidden deficit over decades.

3. Health care is one of the largest productivity reserves

Here, there is a particularly important structural paradox.

The United States spends on healthcare:

17.2% of GDP versus an OECD average of 9.3%.

But the number of doctors is about 2.7 per 1,000 people versus an OECD average of 3.9. OECD

This means the problem cannot be reduced to “give healthcare more money.”

The system already has an extraordinary amount of money.

Therefore, the question is:

why does a unit of healthcare output cost so much?

Systemic reform could operate through four mechanisms:

A unified information infrastructure

The patient should be the unit of the system, not an individual insurer or hospital.

one patient ↓ one medical record ↓ compatible data ↓ hospital / doctor / laboratory / pharmacy

Competition over outcomes, not the number of procedures

Payment model:

more procedures = more income

creates different incentives than:

better treatment outcomes at a lower total cost = greater compensation

Transparent prices

For a standard procedure, the patient, insurer, and employer should see the full price before treatment whenever medically possible.

Increasing the supply of healthcare workers

Limits on the number of doctors, training places, and professional scopes of practice create a supply shortage.

4. Housing: turning land from a political scarcity into an economic resource

As in Spain, the fundamental housing problem cannot be solved by subsidizing buyers alone.

If:

demand ↑ housing ≈

then the subsidy is largely capitalized into the price.

In July 2026, Congress already passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which, among other things, changes federal mechanisms related to zoning, manufactured housing, environmental review, and housing finance. Congressional Budget Office

A deeper systemic mechanism:

as the population and employment of an agglomeration grow → permitted housing capacity should automatically increase.

For example:

metro / railway station ↓ right to denser development ↓ more apartments ↓ more local taxes ↓ better infrastructure

It is especially important to eliminate situations in which existing homeowners can gain economically by blocking new housing.

5. Land taxation is economically more attractive than some taxes on buildings

There is a fundamental difference:

If the building is taxed:

build more → pay more

If the value of the land itself is taxed more heavily:

keep expensive land vacant → expensive develop it efficiently → more profitable

Therefore, partially shifting local taxation from real estate improvements to the value of land can change development incentives.

This is not a universal solution for the entire country, but the economic mechanism is very powerful in expensive agglomerations.

6. Education: the United States has less a problem of money than of results per dollar

The OECD’s Education at a Glance 2025 estimates spending from primary through higher education at approximately $20,387 per student, compared with an OECD average of $15,022. Overall, this is about 5.8% of GDP versus 4.7% for the OECD. OECD

But among adults aged 25–64, approximately 28% have literacy proficiency at Level 1 or below. OECD

PISA 2025 revealed a more complex picture:

• science — above the OECD average;
• reading — above the OECD average;
• mathematics — approximately at the OECD average;
• but reading and mathematics results are lower than in 2018;
• only 65% of USA (N) 15-year-olds achieve at least Level 2 in mathematics. OECD, September 8, 2026. OECD

Therefore, the system unit of education must change:

not

how much money the school received

but

what knowledge and skills the child actually acquired for that money.

The architecture could be:

nationally comparable minimum of knowledge ↓ regular diagnostics ↓ identified specific gap ↓ additional resource for the specific child ↓ repeat assessment

At the same time, school management can remain decentralized.

7. Higher education: break the link “degree = mandatory expensive four-year product”

In many professions, an employer uses a university degree as a selection signal, even when most of the four-year program is not directly needed for the job.

An alternative architecture:

professional module + certified skill + practical experience + next module as needed

In other words, a person accumulates qualifications.

This can coexist with a traditional university for professions where in-depth academic training is genuinely necessary.

8. The main asset of the United States is productivity. It must be extended to the “slow” sectors

The United States has the opposite problem from Turkey.

The technological core is very strong.

In 2026, the BLS is already recording a positive relationship between industries’ exposure to AI and growth in labor productivity; the most AI-intensive industries are also becoming more capital-intensive. Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 2026. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Therefore, the key question is:

how can the productivity of the technology sector be transferred to healthcare, construction, government, education, logistics, and professional services?

That is precisely where a greater long-term effect may lie than in creating yet another technology giant.

9. AI is not merely a new industry, but a general-purpose technology for reducing transaction costs

Its economic function may be much broader:

doctor + AI engineer + AI teacher + AI civil servant + AI lawyer + AI worker + AI

In other words, the model is not necessarily:

human → machine

but often:

1 skilled person + automation → productivity of 1.x–n people

But the economic effect will depend on competition: if the productivity gains are fully converted solely into technology owners’ rents, they will reduce prices for the population less effectively.

10. Antitrust policy should not operate according to the principle “big = bad”

A company’s size in itself does not indicate an economic problem.

The question is:

can a new competitor realistically enter the market?

Therefore, the systemic test is:

market concentration + barriers to entry + switching costs + network effects + control of data

If a company is large because it is more efficient, that is one case.

If it can block the emergence of a competitor, that is another.

11. Immigration is part of the production system, not merely border policy

In an economic model, it is important to distinguish:

• humanitarian policy;
• border control;
• labor market;
• demographics;
• talent attraction.

For the economy, a transparent system can be built:

labor shortage + person’s qualifications + regional need ↓ fast legal channel

In other words, legal economic migration responds to real labor shortages.

This is especially important amid an aging population and large future pension obligations.

12. Infrastructure should be evaluated through the productivity of the area

Not:

“how many billions were invested.”

But:

how much the investment reduced the cost of moving a person, a good, electricity, or information.

For example:

new power grid ↓ cheaper connection of generation ↓ greater competition among producers ↓ lower system-wide electricity costs

or:

railway / urban transport ↓ larger accessible labor market ↓ more efficient matching of workers and jobs ↓ agglomeration productivity ↑

13. The most important reform is to change the government’s KPIs

The government system often measures:

allocated funds number of programs number of employees number of recipients

Economically, it is much more useful to measure:

cost of the result

For example:

• $ / case cured;
• $ / student who reached the established level;
• $ / minute of travel time reduced;
• $ / unit of power-grid capacity created;
• time to obtain a construction permit;
• number of new apartments per 1,000 new households.

Then the state begins to optimize the result, rather than the program’s budget.

The overall model

The structural problem of the United States can be presented as follows:

HIGH TECHNOLOGICAL PRODUCTIVITY ↓ HIGH INCOMES AND CAPITAL ↓ ┌────────┴─────────┐ ↓ ↓ PRODUCTIVE SECTORS SECTORS WITH LIMITED AI / software / SUPPLY advanced industry housing / healthcare / education / infrastructure ↓ ↓ prices fall or prices rise quality rises rapidly faster than incomes └────────┬─────────┘ ↓ UNEVEN PRODUCTIVITY

The systemic task is to open the second column to competition, supply, technology, and outcome measurement.

In parallel:

economic growth + fiscal reform + control of healthcare costs + actuarial stabilization of pensions ↓ primary deficit ↓ ↓ debt / GDP stabilizes ↓ interest burden ↓ ↓ more resources for productive investment

The main generalization

If Turkey needs a transition from unstable money to productivity, then the United States faces a different task:

transfer the extraordinarily high productivity of advanced sectors to housing, healthcare, education, infrastructure, and public administration — while simultaneously putting an end to the automatic accumulation of debt.

This is precisely where the central economic mechanism lies: not producing even more money, but radically increasing the amount of real output that one dollar buys.